DoD Report on Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management

PDF at http://tinyurl.com/zktxs4qf

Urban resilience framework for Norfolk, VA -

A new report on Norfolk relevant to many coastal cities LINK

Here is the abstract:

The same water that makes Norfolk, VA an ideal home for international ports and naval installations is also increasingly flooding large parts of the city and the surrounding Hampton Roads region. This report describes the development of a process to analyze the resilience of urban regions to the shocks and stresses that those cities care about, and applies this process to address flooding in Norfolk and Hampton Roads. The goal is to provide Norfolk city officials and regional asset owners with actionable information to plan the infrastructure improvements that will most greatly enhance the region’s resilience to flooding. Results suggest that there are wide-ranging impacts of a major acute flooding event beyond the Hampton Roads region. A single four-day, 100-year flood event in Hampton Roads would cause on the order of $355-606 million in detrimental impacts to global production, with greater impacts occurring in the future as net sea levels rise. This report highlights the infrastructure behaviors, interdependencies, and the economic analyses that determine these impacts.

Past and projected trends in climate and sea level for South Florida

Nice review of the situation by water managers at http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xrepository/sfwmd_repository_pdf/ccireport_publicationversion_14jul11.pdf

Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for SE Florida

Summary from the Report  LINK

The Work Group recommends the use of the NOAA High Curve, the USACE High Curve (USACE, 2015) and the median of the IPCC AR5 RCP8.5 scenario (IPCC, 2013) as the basis for a Southeast Florida sea level rise projection for the 2030, 2060 and 2100 planning horizons. In the short term, sea level rise is projected to be 6 to 10 inches by 2030 and 14 to 26 inches by 2060 (above the 1992 mean sea level). Sea level has risen 3 inches from 1992 to 2015. In the long term, sea level rise is projected to be 31 to 61 inches by 2100. For critical infrastructure projects with design lives in excess of 50 years, use of the upper curve is recommended with planning values of 34 inches in 2060 and 81 inches in 2100. Sea level will continue to rise even if global mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are successful at stabilizing or reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations; however, emissions mitigation is essential to moderate the severity of potential impacts in the future. A substantial increase in sea level rise within this century is likely and may occur in rapid pulses rather than gradually.

The recommended projection provides guidance for the Compact Counties and their partners to initiate planning to address the potential impacts of sea level rise on the region. The shorter term planning horizons(through 2060) are critical to implementation of the Southeast Florida Regional 14 Climate Change Action Plan, to optimize the remaining economic life of existing infrastructure and to begin to consider adaptation strategies. As scientists develop a better understanding of the factors and reinforcing feedback mechanisms impacting sea level rise, the Southeast Florida community will need to adjust the projections accordingly and adapt to the changing conditions. To ensure public safety and economic viability in the long run, strategic policy decisions will be needed to develop guidelines to direct future public and private investments to areas less vulnerable to future sea level rise impacts.

SLR Summaries by Aslak Grinsted

I had been following Aslak Grinsted's twitter feed but just found his very nice blog http://www.glaciology.net/sea-level-rise

I'm just going thru the many references he has but thought you might want to look at it.

National Parks and Sea Level Rise

New Report out LINK

Swiss Re report on the "Big One"

Swiss Re has a new report out on what the effect the the 1821 hurricane occurred now. LINK

Quoted from Swiss Re

It has happened before

Nearly 200 years ago a major hurricane pummeled the entire Mid-Atlantic and Northeast - from Norfolk to Washington, DC to Boston. The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane made landfall on the coast of North Carolina with wind gusts above 156 mph and carved a path of devastation up and down the Eastern Seaboard, making subsequent landfalls in Delaware, New Jersey and New York. Only 136,000 people lived in New York City and Washington at the time and losses were modest by today’s standards. There was no such thing as radar, satellites or the National Weather Service, yet there were many vivid accounts and records, which can be extrapolated to the present to create instructive assumptions.
Past plus present equals future

A new report from Swiss Re, The big one: The East Coast's USD 100 billion event (PDF, 730 KB) examines how the 1821 hurricane would impact the region today. Trillions of dollars of assets and infrastructure would lie in the storm’s path, much of it aging and along the coast. Using our in-house, proprietary tropical cyclone model we reconstructed the storm track, wind field and potential storm surge and concluded that a large area of the most heavily developed Eastern Seaboard would be exposed to hurricane force wind gusts.
Storm surge comparable to Sandy would inundate New York City, accompanied by powerful winds gusting over 100 mph. Norfolk, Virginia - home of critical US Navy installations - would be completely flooded. Coastal counties would sustain wind damage alone in excess of USD 1 billion. Combined physical damage from both storm surge and wind would exceed USD 100 billion, while the storm's total potential economic impact is on the order of USD 150 billion.
Hurricane Sandy was a wake-up call; if left unheeded, the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane would be the nightmare.