More evidence of Gulf Stream Slowdown

Two papers just published by Rahmsdorf et al in Nature and Ezer in Global and Planetary Change  give more information on the Gulf Stream slowdown and of course that relates to coastal sea level.

The paper reference is Rahmstorf, S., Box, J., Feulner, G., Mann, M., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., Schaffernicht, E. (2015): Exceptional twentieth-Century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature Climate Change (online) LINK


Tal Ezer. 2015. Detecting changes in the transport of the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic
overturning circulation from coastal sea level data: The extreme decline
in 2009–2010 and estimated variations for 1935–2012 LINK TO PDF

www.realclimate.org has nice review of the Rahmsdorf paper and link to graphics etc. LINK

The Sandy Report

The North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study Report is now ready. Link to very useful website and nice graphics at http://www.nad.usace.army.mil/compstudy

Nuisance Flooding 1927-2014

With the beginning of a new year I downloaded all the one hour data from Sewells Point and plotted the number of hours measured water level was above the nuisance flooding level for that station.

Nuisance flooding is considered 0.53 m above MHHW.

If you want the data for this plot do you can replot it or data from Sewells Point contact me.

Here is the plot:

Land Motion Measurements

As we all know the land in the mid-Atlantic is sinking or subsiding.

This post links to a NOAA system call CORS - Continuously Operating Reference System - that measures very accurately earth motion.

The link to the main page is http://geodesy.noaa.gov/CORS/

The long-term data plots I looked at were all rather short and many have ended.

Nevertheless there may be good subsidence information here.

Long Awaited Report on Sea Level Rise risk to Norfolk Navy Base released

The report titled "Risk Quantification for Sustaining
 Coastal Military Installation Asset and Mission
Capabilities (RC-1701)" by Kelly A. Burks-Copes and many colleagues. We here at ODU have hosted Kelly several times and heard her presentation on this work. Now it is published. Here is the LINK to the report.
This modeling done to produce the products in this report are a good example of how to do a risk analysis of this challenge. Good reading.

NOAA water level data - Matlab files

I've downloaded most NOAA water level stations from east coast into Matlab 'mat' files.
They are at data link
Disclaimer - no guarantee with this data. If you going to use it check very carefully to make sure it is correct. It is referenced to MHHW.

State by State SLR reports

Having just got a link to a report by New Hampshire I'm going to put together a list of what might be called official or state government requested reports created by state entities stating SLR rates.

Reports states are doing are often about adapting to SLR so they will or may have a statement about what SLR rate to adapt to.

I'll put all this in a page on this blog as the list builds but here are three that I'm aware of now.

Here are the links. Go to them to make sure you get the correct information.

Delaware
Maryland
New Hampshire
New York Report
Virginia
Florida
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New Jersey


Here are the rise rates stated in the reports  - go to the report linked above to see the basis for their guidance. I use their units.

NOTE - data below needs updating

Delaware (2012)

Three scenarios to 2100
0.5 m (1.6 ft),  1.0 m ( 3.3 ft) and 1.5 m (4.9 ft)

Maryland (2013)

2050 Best 0.4 m(1.4 ft)
2050 Low 0.3 m (0.9 ft)
2050 High 0.7 m (2.1 ft)

2100 Best 1.1 m (3.7 ft)
2100 Low 0.7 m (2.1 ft)
2100 High 1.7 m (5.7 ft)

New Hampshire (2014)

2050 Intermediate Low 0.6 ft, High 1.3 ft, Highest 2.0 ft
2100 Intermediate Low 1.6 ft, High 3.9 ft, Highest 6.60 ft


New York for Lower Hudson Valley & Long Island (2010)

Sea level rise
2020s 2 2 to 5 in

Sea level rise with rapid ice‐melt scenario
2020s 3 5 to 10 in
2050s 19 to 29 in
2080s 41 to 55 in

New Jersey (2019) Please look at the report as this is the most sophisticated analysis that I know of by a state. I'll try to summarize it so it compares to other states. All state planners should look at this analysis.

Virginia (2013)

1.5 feet by 2050

Florida (2010)
0.5 to 1.0 m by 2100 (directly from IPCC)

Conversions 

1 inch = 0.0254 m
1 foot = 0.3048 m